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Shift In California’s Population Projections

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Sacramento, CA — California’s long-term population estimates are dropping as more people have left the state in recent years.

The California Department of Finance now projects that California’s population will remain pretty flat, landing at around 39.5 million, in the year 2060. Just a few years ago the state was projecting 45 million people by that year. Currently, just under 39 million live in the state. California lost population, for the first time, back in 2020. The state has been challenged by issues like the higher cost of living and recent matters like rising homelessness.

Meanwhile, the state projections predict that both Tuolumne and Calaveras counties will lose population by 2060. Tuolumne is currently at just over 55,000 people and Calaveras has around 45,000. The state projects Tuolumne County’s population will fall to 49,317 in 2060 and Calaveras will drop to 36,445.

The state’s methodology includes projecting natural births, deaths, in-migration, and out-migration. However, the big shift in the projections over just the past few years shows how volatile the data can be. The state compiles the information to help long-term planning.