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TC Public Health Predicts When Omicron Wave Will Peak And Decrease

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Sonora, CA — Thursday was the largest single-day increase in COVID cases in Tuolumne County since the start of the pandemic with 208 in the community and 10 at the Sierra Conservation Center.

Of note, there were over 300 reported on Monday, but the number reflected the weekend as well. Interim Health Officer Dr. Eric Sergienko has looked at data from places like South Africa, the United Kingdom, and New York, which saw the arrival of Omicron earlier, and says it has consistently been an “eight-week Omicron wave.”

He says, “We started seeing our inflection point locally just before Christmas, so really the peak of our epidemic curve with Omicron will probably be around the 20th of January, or a little bit afterward.”

Case rates will then likely plateau and start to decrease.

Thankfully, like other areas, the symptoms with Omicron have been less severe. Dr. Sergienko adds, “We are not seeing that 6-8-percent of our population requiring hospitalization like we were with earlier waves. It is probably too early to say a percentage, but it could be around 1-2 percent, and we’ll see how it continues to play out.”

Local schools have been among the areas reporting a recent spike in cases. Of the 208 community cases yesterday, 44 were under the age of 18.

Dr. Sergienko notes that Public Health and school officials met this week to discuss whether sporting events should put in place crowd limitations. In the end, the group decided against implementing any types of capacity limits but will continue to enforce things like masking measures.