College football picks: Punts trending toward record low as coaches get more aggressive on 4th down
College football picks: Punts trending toward record low as coaches get more aggressive on 4th down
As the clock was winding down in a second straight game during which Archie Wilson didn’t attempt a punt, Nebraska coach Matt Rhule came up with an idea to get the freshman on the field for the first time at Memorial Stadium.
When the Cornhuskers went into victory formation to finish a 52-point win over Houston Christian on Sept. 13, Wilson was out there as the deep man behind the running backs.
Wilson ended up punting four times in last week’s loss to Michigan, but his relative inactivity in the previous two games was a sign of the times.
The punt is in decline.
Football Bowl Subdivision teams are averaging 3.8 punts per game, a figure on track to be the lowest since the NCAA began keeping the statistic in 1937. Punt attempts have dropped for eight straight seasons, and the 2024 average of 4.1 was one full punt per game less than in 2015.
The college numbers mirror those in the NFL, where the average of 3.6 per game is lowest in history.
The sport’s growing reliance on analytics has encouraged coaches to be aggressive on fourth down. Also, field goals from long distances are on the rise. There were six field goals of 60-plus yards in the FBS last season, the most since 1977, and there has been one this season. There have been 52 field goals from 50-59 yards, on pace to match the record 188 last year.
The picks for this week’s FBS vs. FBS games, with Associated Press Top 25 rankings and lines from BetMGM Sportsbook:
No. 1 Ohio State (minus 8 1/2) at Washington
Washington has scored touchdowns on 23 of its 29 drives over three games. Ohio State has allowed two TDs over 34 series. First meeting since the 2019 Rose Bowl, where Buckeyes held on to win Urban Meyer’s final game as coach.
Pick: Ohio State 31-21.
No. 6 Oregon (plus 3 1/2) at No. 3 Penn State
Penn State can make a statement after getting skewered for its light nonconference schedule. Ducks have won eight straight on the road, and it’s hard to imagine they’ll be intimidated by the White Out in this Big Ten championship game rematch.
Pick: Oregon 26-22.
No. 4 LSU at No. 13 Mississippi (minus 1 1/2)
Rebels offense has been prolific with QB Trinidad Chambliss filling in for Austin Simmons. Coach Lane Kiffin hasn’t announced a starter for this week. LSU has one of the nation’s most stout defenses, but the home team gets the nod.
Pick: Mississippi 28-24.
No. 17 Alabama at No. 5 Georgia (minus 3)
Georgia has won a nation-best 33 straight home games since 2019. Alabama has won nine of the last 10 in the series. Crimson Tide QB Ty Simpson draws tough assignment for his first start in an SEC game.
Pick: Georgia 28-21.
No. 8 Florida State (minus 7) at Virginia
It’s been a slow build for Tony Elliott and the Cavaliers, and they look at Friday night as a big opportunity after a 3-1 start. The Seminoles lead the nation in scoring, and QB Tommy Castellanos expects to be back after leaving last week’s game with a leg injury.
Pick: Florida State 42-28.
Auburn at No. 9 Texas A&M (minus 6 1/2)
Texas A&M has had two weeks to come down from its emotional one-point win at Notre Dame. Auburn is on the road a second straight week against a ranked opponent. Aggies’ front seven will be licking chops after Oklahoma recorded nine sacks against the Tigers last week.
Pick: Texas A&M 30-21.
No. 11 Indiana (minus 7 1/2) at Iowa
Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza is the hottest QB in the country and Curt Cignetti doesn’t know how to tap the brakes on his offense. Iowa gave up 330 yards passing to Rutgers last week, the most allowed by the Hawkeyes in four years.
Pick: Indiana 38-14.
Arizona (plus 6 1/2) at No. 14 Iowa State
Cyclones QB Rocco Becht will have to be at his best against the nation’s top pass efficiency defense. The Wildcats, 3-0 for first time since 2014, have picked off five passes and haven’t given up a touchdown through the air.
Pick: Iowa State 24-21.
No. 15 Tennessee (minus 7 1/2) at Mississippi State
Bulldogs have greatly improved their pass defense, but it’s a big ask to keep Joey Aguilar under wraps when the MSU pass rush has recorded just 1.25 sacks per game. MSU’s offense won’t be able to keep up.
Pick: Tennessee 37-24.
No. 16 Georgia Tech (minus 14) at Wake Forest
The Yellow Jackets have overcome turnovers and a rash of penalties to win four straight, and a balanced offense averaging 8.1 yards per play should keep chugging along.
Pick: Georgia Tech 35-17.
Utah State at No. 18 Vanderbilt (minus 22 1/2)
Vanderbilt has scored no fewer than 31 points, averages 47.5 per game and just hung 70 on Georgia State for its highest total since 1918. Utah State is 1-13 all-time against the SEC and hasn’t beaten a power-conference opponent since 2021.
Pick: Vanderbilt 45-20.
UMass at No. 20 Missouri (minus 44 1/2)
RB Ahmad Hardy has four straight 100-yard games and is second nationally at 150 per game. He’ll probably sit down for the day after getting his obligatory 100 against the overmatched Minutemen. Mizzou won 45-3 in Amherst last year.
Pick: Missouri 45-0.
No. 21 Southern California (minus 6 1/2) at No. 23 Illinois
Illinois gets a double whammy having to face the Trojans right after being humiliated 63-10 by Indiana. Like Fernando Mendoza, USC’s Jayden Maiava puts up big numbers and is complemented by a strong run game.
Pick: USC 33-21.
No. 22 Notre Dame (minus 4 1/2) at Arkansas
The Irish made some personnel adjustments in their secondary after allowing 300 yards passing two straight games. Arkansas’ Taylen Green has thrown for over 300 in his last two. Turnovers have been a bugaboo for the Razorbacks.
Pick: Notre Dame 33-28.
No. 24 TCU at Arizona State (minus 2 1/2)
The Friday night game features two of the Big 12’s most exciting passing combination in TCU QB Josh Hoover and WR Eric McAlister and ASU’s Sam Leavitt and Jordyn Tyson.
Pick: Arizona State 45-40.
No. 25 BYU at Colorado (plus 6 1/2)
This is a rematch of the 2024 Alamo Bowl, which BYU won 36-14 in an all-Big 12 matchup. The Cougars are on the road a second straight week after going across the country to play East Carolina last week.
Pick: BYU 27-24.
Byes: No. 2 Miami, No. 7 Oklahoma, No. 10 Texas, No. 12 Texas Tech, No. 19 Michigan.
AP predictions scorecard
Last week: Straight-up — 14-1; Against spread — 7-8.
Season: Straight-up — 56-7; Against spread — 32-31.
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By ERIC OLSON
AP College Football Writer
