An exit poll in Portugal’s general election suggests another minority government
LISBON, Portugal (AP) — A general election in Portugal on Sunday was poised to deliver yet another minority government, an exit poll suggested, as the country’s increasingly fragmented political landscape defies efforts to unite behind policies on issues such as immigration, housing and the cost of living.
The center-right Democratic Alliance captured between 29% and 34% of the votes in the country’s third general election in three years, according to the exit poll by Portugal’s Catholic University for public broadcaster Radiotelevisao Portuguesa.
The center-left Socialist Party got between 21% and 26% while the hard-right populist party Chega (Enough) had between 20% and 24%, the poll indicated.
With that tally, the Democratic Alliance could get between 85 and 96 seats, short of the 116 needed for a majority in Portugal’s 230-seat parliament. It could form a minority government or forge partnerships with smaller parties to obtain a majority.
Most official results are expected by midnight (2300 GMT).
Cheers and applause broke out at the Democratic Alliance campaign headquarters when the exit poll was broadcast. The Socialist headquarters was largely silent as the party faced what could be its worst result since 1987.
Chega’s possible count was a surprise, potentially putting it close to a level footing with the Socialist Party. Chega competed in its first election six years ago, when it won one seat. Sunday’s exit poll gave it as many as 61, up from 50 in last year’s election as it fed off discontentment with the traditional main parties.
A second consecutive minority government in Portugal would dash hopes for an end to the worst spell of political instability in decades for the European Union country of 10.6 million people.
For the past 50 years, two parties have dominated politics, with the Social Democrats, who head the Democratic Alliance, and the Socialist Party alternating in power.
But public frustration with their record in government has fueled the growth of new alternatives in recent years. That has denied the bigger parties enough seats in parliament for a majority needed to ensure that they serve a full four-year term.
“This campaign was very, very weak, had ridiculous moments, like clownish. Very little was spoken about Portugal within the European Union — it’s like we are not part of it,” teacher Isabel Monteiro, 63, said in Lisbon, adding that she felt “disenchantment” with all parties.
The center-right alliance had led opinion polls
The Democratic Alliance, which also includes the smaller Popular Party, lost a confidence vote in parliament in March after less than a year in power, as opposition lawmakers teamed up against it. That triggered an early election, which had been due in 2028.
The confidence vote was sparked by a political storm around potential conflicts of interest in the business dealings of Social Democratic Prime Minister Luís Montenegro’s family law firm. Montenegro has denied any wrongdoing and is standing for reelection.
Corruption scandals have dogged Portuguese politics in recent years. That has helped fuel the rise of Chega, whose leader André Ventura says he has “zero tolerance” for misconduct in office.
But Chega has recently fallen foul of its own lawmakers’ alleged wrongdoing.
One is suspected of stealing suitcases from the Lisbon airport and selling the contents online, and another allegedly faked the signature of a dead woman. Both resigned.
“We are lacking people with character, with righteousness,” said Alexandre Cardoso, a 75-year-old retiree. “It worries me more due to my grandchildren. … There is a lot of disenchantment, a lot, especially for people of my generation that have gone through what we did. I don’t see the light at the end of the tunnel.”
Immigration and housing are key issues
Chega owes much of its success to its demands for a tighter immigration policy that have resonated with voters.
Portugal has witnessed a steep rise in immigration. In 2018, there were fewer than a half-million legal immigrants in the country, according to government statistics. By early this year, there were more than 1.5 million, many of them Brazilians and Asians working in tourism and farming.
Thousands more lack the proper documents to be in Portugal. The outgoing government announced two weeks before the election that it was expelling about 18,000 foreigners living in the country without authorization. Though such a step is routine, the timing drew accusations that it was trying to capture votes from Chega.
Socialist leader Pedro Nuno Santos, who is also standing for prime minister, described the move as a “Trumpification” of Portuguese politics, referring to U.S. President Donald Trump’s focus on immigration policies.
A housing crisis has also fired up debate. House prices and rents have been soaring for the past 10 years, due in part to an influx of white-collar foreigners who have driven up prices.
House prices jumped another 9% last year, said the National Statistics Institute, a government body. Rents in and around the capital Lisbon, where around 1.5 million people live, last year saw the steepest rise in 30 years, climbing more than 7%, the institute said.
The problem is compounded by Portugal being one of Western Europe’s poorest countries.
The average monthly salary last year was around 1,200 euros ($1,340) before tax, according to the statistics agency. The government-set minimum wage this year is 870 euros ($974) a month before tax.
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A previous version of this story was corrected to show that 116, not 166, seats are needed for a majority in Parliament.
By BARRY HATTON and HELENA ALVES
Associated Press
