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This Week: Consumer confidence, inflation data, GDP update

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Confidence check

The Conference Board on Tuesday issues its consumer confidence index for June.

Economists expect that consumer confidence held steady as Americans continued to deal with elevated prices and high interest rates. Confidence rose in May. The measure is closely watched by Wall Street, along with retail sales, to gauge how consumers are holding up amid pressure from inflation and broader worries about slower economic growth.

Consumer confidence, by month:

Jan.: 110.9

Feb.: 104.8

March: 103.1

April: 97.5

May:102

June (est.): 102

Source: FactSet

Economic slowdown

The Commerce Department issues its final reading of first-quarter economic growth Thursday.

Economists expect GDP grew 1.3%, unchanged from its last update. It’s a sharp drop from 3.4% growth in the final quarter of 2023. Consumers have been shifting spending to more necessary goods and services. High borrowing rates and stubborn inflation have been squeezing consumers.

GDP, seasonally adjusted annual rate, by quarter:

Q4 2022: 2.6%

Q1 2023: 2.2%

Q2 2023: 2.1%

Q3 2023: 4.9%

Q4 2023: 3.4%

Q1 2024: 1.3%

Source: FactSet.

Inflation update

The Commerce Department on Friday delivers May data on consumer spending and inflation.

Analyst forecast that year-over-year inflation edged lower in May. The Commerce Department’s personal consumption and expenditures report is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, which raised interest rates to their highest levels in 22 years in an effort to tame four-decade high inflation.

PCE Deflator, annual percent change, seasonally adjusted:

Dec.: 2.6

Jan.: 2.5

Feb.: 2.5

March: 2.7

April: 2.7

May (est.): 2.6

Source: FactSet.

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