College football picks: Average winning margin in FBS after Week 3 is widest since at least 2000
College football picks: Average winning margin in FBS after Week 3 is widest since at least 2000
If you think there have been a lot of lopsided games through the first three weeks of the season, you’re right.
Let us count the ways:
The average winning margin in the Football Bowl Subdivision is 25.5 points per game and 28.9 per game when one of the teams is from a power conference. A total of 53 games have been decided by at least 40 points. All those figures are the highest through a Week 3 since at least 2000, according to Sportradar.
There have been eight games where the winner amassed at least 70 points; the 25 games where the winner scored at least 60 are the most since 2018. Eight FBS teams are averaging at least 50 points per game, most at this point in a season since 2019.
Is the run of blowouts an aberration, a product of there being a record 126 FCS-FBS matchups this year or talent hording by programs that can pay the most? It’s anybody’s guess right now.
The picks for this week’s FBS vs. FBS games, with Associated Press Top 25 rankings and lines from BetMGM Sportsbook:
Florida at No. 4 Miami (minus 7 1/2)
Florida’s DJ Lagway is coming off his five-interception nightmare at LSU. Carson Beck is the most accurate passer in the country through Week 3. Beleaguered Gators coach Billy Napier said Monday, “We’re close to being pretty dangerous.” Miami already is.
Pick: Miami 27-17.
Oregon State at No. 6 Oregon (minus 35 1/2)
Oregon has blown out the Beavers two straight years in the Civil War and are fixing to do it again. The Ducks just have to resist looking ahead to next week’s game at Penn State. Beavers are 0-3 for first time since 2011.
Pick: Oregon 52-10.
Kent State at No. 7 Florida State (minus 45 1/2)
The Seminoles are only the fourth team since the Top 25 era began in 1989 to go from unranked in the preseason to the top 10 by Week 3. Kent State hasn’t beaten a team from a power conference since 2007.
Pick: Florida State 55-6.
Sam Houston (plus 39 1/2) at No. 8 Texas
Arch Manning’s struggle against UTEP last week is causing anxiety in Austin. How he fares against one of the worst pass defenses in the country will set the tone for the start of SEC play.
Pick: Texas 45-7.
No. 9 Illinois (plus 4 1/2) at No. 19 Indiana
Indiana gets an opportunity to show naysayers it wasn’t a one-hit wonder in 2024. Illinois is fighting the perception it’s overrated. If the Illini want to validate themselves as a College Football Playoff contender, this is as close to a must win as there is in September.
Pick: Illinois 31-24.
Auburn at No. 11 Oklahoma (minus 6 1/2)
It will be key for Auburn to get its run game going to keep the ball out of Oklahoma QB John Mateer’s hands. Tigers QB Jackson Arnold returns to Norman to face his old team. Auburn has allowed seven sacks, so expect the Sooners to come after him hard.
Pick: Oklahoma 30-21.
Tulane (plus 11 1/2) at No. 13 Mississippi
If QB Austin Simmons isn’t ready to go, the Rebels have confidence in Division II transfer Trinidad Chambliss after his impressive outing against Arkansas. Tulane goes for a third win against a power-conference opponent.
Pick: Mississippi 35-27.
UAB at No. 15 Tennessee (minus 39 1/2)
Volunteers will bounce back with a vengeance from their heartbreaking loss to Georgia. Tennessee’s offense averages 569 yards per game to rank sixth. UAB’s defense allows 473 per game to rank 131st.
Pick: Tennessee 56-10.
No. 17 Texas Tech (plus 3) at No. 16 Utah
These are the top two offenses in the Big 12. Tech’s Behren Morton is putting up prolific passing numbers to lead a unit averaging a nation-leading 58 points per game. The Utes lean on a run game averaging 290 yards per game.
Pick: Texas Tech 38-31.
Temple at No. 18 Georgia Tech (minus 23 1/2)
The Yellow Jackets must guard against an emotional hangover after their win over Clemson. Temple gave up 515 yards to Oklahoma last week and now goes against a Haynes King-led offense that’s just as good.
Pick: Georgia Tech 45-10.
Georgia State at No. 20 Vanderbilt (minus 26 1/2)
The priority for Vanderbilt the next two weeks against Georgia State and Utah State is to keep everybody healthy and to get the backups some work.
Pick: Vanderbilt 38-3.
No. 21 Michigan (minus 2 1/2) at Nebraska
If he can get comfortable in his first Big Ten game on the road, Bryce Underwood’s ability as a passer and runner will make him a tough matchup. Nebraska gave up 96 yards on the ground to Cincinnati QB Brendan Sorsby in its opener.
Pick: Michigan 28-24.
South Carolina (plus 11 1/2) at No. 23 Missouri
Gamecocks are desperate to bounce back from last week’s home loss to Vanderbilt and they’ll need QB LaNorris Sellers to do it. He entered the week recovering from a hit in the head. Missouri has won seven straight SEC home games.
Pick: Missouri 34-28.
Purdue (plus 24 1/2) at No. 24 Notre Dame
The Irish’s two losses are by a total of four points. They shouldn’t have to worry about this one being close. But Purdue, which lost 66-7 to Notre Dame at home last year, does look better under first-year coach Barry Odom.
Pick: Notre Dame 35-14.
Michigan State at No. 25 Southern California (minus 18 1/2)
USC’s Jayden Maiava is throwing for 330 yards per game and has the highest passer rating in the country. The Spartans give up a lot through the air.
Pick: Southern California 45-21.
AP predictions scorecard
Last week: Straight-up — 17-2; Against spread — 12-7.
Season: Straight-up — 42-6; Against spread — 25-23.
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By ERIC OLSON
AP College Football Writer
